Climate change effects on groundwater recharge in Yucatan Peninsula. Application of water balance models to GCMs

Abstract

The effects of climate change are significant on groundwater recharge. In regions with 15 socioeconomic structures highly dependent on this kind of water source, expected positive 16 and negative variations in temperature and precipitation respectively, will have a negative 17 effect on the recharge of groundwater and, consequently, on the future well-being of their 18 inhabitants. In this paper we aim at estimating the effect that changes in climatic 19 parameters will have on groundwater recharge in one of these areas: the Yucatan Peninsula 20 (Mexico). We apply a monthly water balance model to five distinct Global Circulation 21 Models in the near horizon (2015-2039), with RCP 4.5 and 8.5. In average terms, our 22 results estimate a current recharge between 118 ± 33 mm per year, which represents around 23 10 % of the total annual precipitation, and a reduction of 23% of groundwater recharge, a 24 result which clearly threatens the future socioecological equilibrium of the region.