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dc.contributor.authorClaveria, Oscar
dc.contributor.authorMonte Moreno, Enrique
dc.contributor.authorTorra Porras, Salvador
dc.contributor.otherUniversitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Departament de Teoria del Senyal i Comunicacions
dc.date.accessioned2016-10-03T18:51:04Z
dc.date.available2017-09-26T00:30:25Z
dc.date.issued2016-09-24
dc.identifier.citationClaveria, O., Monte, E., Torra Porras, S. A new approach for the quantification of qualitative measures of economic expectations. "Quality and quantity", 24 Setembre 2016.
dc.identifier.issn0033-5177
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2117/90422
dc.description.abstractIn this study a new approach to quantify qualitative survey data about the direction of change is presented. We propose a data-driven procedure based on evolutionary computation that avoids making any assumption about agents’ expectations. The research focuses on experts’ expectations about the state of the economy from the World Economic Survey in twenty eight countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The proposed method is used to transform qualitative responses into estimates of economic growth. In a first experiment, we combine agents’ expectations about the future to construct a leading indicator of economic activity. In a second experiment, agents’ judgements about the present are combined to generate a coincident indicator. Then, we use index tracking to derive the optimal combination of weights for both indicators that best replicates the evolution of economic activity in each country. Finally, we compute several accuracy measures to assess the performance of these estimates in tracking economic growth. The different results across countries have led us to use multidimensional scaling analysis in order to group all economies in four clusters according to their performance. We obtain the best results for Belgium, Norway, Austria, Lithuania, Japan and the United Kingdom.
dc.language.isoeng
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/
dc.subjectÀrees temàtiques de la UPC::Economia i organització d'empreses::Macroeconomia
dc.subject.lcshEconomic development
dc.subject.otherEconomic growth
dc.subject.otherQualitative survey data
dc.subject.otherExpectations
dc.subject.otherSymbolic regression
dc.subject.otherEvolutionary algorithms
dc.subject.otherGenetic programming JEL
dc.titleA new approach for the quantification of qualitative measures of economic expectations
dc.typeArticle
dc.subject.lemacDesenvolupament econòmic
dc.contributor.groupUniversitat Politècnica de Catalunya. VEU - Grup de Tractament de la Parla
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s11135-016-0416-0
dc.description.peerreviewedPeer Reviewed
dc.relation.publisherversionhttp://link.springer.com.recursos.biblioteca.upc.edu/article/10.1007/s11135-016-0416-0
dc.rights.accessOpen Access
drac.iddocument19030842
dc.description.versionPostprint (author's final draft)
upcommons.citation.authorClaveria, O.; Monte, E.; Torra Porras, S.
upcommons.citation.publishedtrue
upcommons.citation.publicationNameQuality and quantity


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