The deceleration of aircraft in overrun accidents from the point of first impact to the end of the wreckage path

Abstract

Purpose: This paper outlines previous attempts to model aircraft deceleration and using a newer database containing a greater number of observations tries to refine the model. Design/methodology: It is noted that data inadequacies still necessitate the estimation of a given acceleration for the aircraft wreckage path, but that there are more opportunities to change the intercept in a regression model to reflect categorical and dummy variables that proxy factors such as runway condition, the degree of control exercised by the pilot during the crash, the speed at the point of first impact (hereafter POFI), headwind, rain, characteristics of the terrain on the wreckage path and aborted take-offs. Findings: The contribution of some of the explanatory variables can be seen. It is a shame other potential influences are not found to be significant. It is important to understand deceleration so that the wreckage location of aircraft accidents can be understood. This then gives guidance of appropriate runway safety areas. Originality/value: This is the first time this has been attempted on the expanded accident database.