A multivariate model of NW Mediterranean extreme events at present and future climate: hydrodynamics, energy and duration

Abstract

A statistical model of the future wave-extreme-climate under the RCP8.5 Climatic-Change scenario was required. Some variables of interest are energy, unitary energy, peak wave-period, duration, wave direction and growth-decay rates. Hierarchical Archimedean Copulae (HAC) and generalized Pareto distributions (GPD) have been used to model the first four variables, whereas the rest are characterized as individual variables. By examining the statistical model, the most relevant outcomes for future climate are less durable and energetic but more intense storms in the near and far future, an increase of wave peak-period in the far-future at the Roses bay, and a detachment of peak period from energy, unitary energy and duration in the far-future at the Ebre Delta.