Coastal sustainability for uncertain futures: a Spanish Mediterranean case from the RISES-AM- project

Abstract

This document presents the impacts of future climatic conditions as a function of coastal typology. The impact assessment is carried out at decadal and storm scales showing how such a combination produces the worst levels of damage. From here the implications at a “predictive” scale up to 10 years and at a projective scale up to 10 decades is considered. The resulting impact consequences, normalized by their respective probability of occurrence allow calculating risk levels. For the more clear vulnerability hotspots the proposal in the paper is to use natural accretion mechanisms where the natural power of meteorological and oceanographic events can be put to use to contribute sedimentary inputs to a starving coastal zone. In the same manner the natural adaptive capacity of coastal systems could be enhanced if natural accommodation space is provided or considered for present and future planning. The paper ends with some conclusions on the development of a pathway for efficient responses to climatic change.