Considering expected TMA holding into in-flight trajectory optimization

Abstract

Aircraft crew are aware of the delay they have experienced at departure. However, uncertainties ahead, and in particular holdings at arrival, can have an impact on the final performance of their operations. When optimizing a trajectory, the expected cost at the arrival gate should be considered. Consequently, taking into account potential congestion and extra delay at the arrival airspace is paramount to avoid making sub-optimal decisions during the early stages of a flight. This paper presents a framework to optimize trajectories in the execution phase of the flight considering expected delays at arrival. A flight from Athens (LGAV) to London Heathrow (EGLL) is used as an illustrative example, systematically exploring a range of departure delays and expected holdings at arrival.