COVID-19 pandemic effects on traffic crash patterns and injuries in Barcelona, Spain: an interpretable approach

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has certainly affected our lives in many different aspects. Traffic, in general, and traffic crashes, in particular, have both been affected by the pandemic. This study, therefore, is conducted to examine the influence of the pandemic on traffic crashes different levels of injuries in Barcelona, Spain. Time-series analysis and forecast are both exploited to achieve the objective of conducting this study. The results show a dramatic drop in traffic crashes, especially during the state of alarm duration that was imposed in March 2020. All levels of injuries that resulted from traffic crashes have shown approximately 39%, 30%, and 36% reduction for slight, severe, and fatal injuries, respectively. Additionally, the impact of certain chosen risk factors is found to be the same after employing two exhaustive chi-square automatic interaction (CHAID) models. Male injured persons and the time of the day represented by evening and night timing are found to have higher probabilities of having severe or fatal injuries both before and during the pandemic periods. The two applied exhaustive CHAID models have proven their ability to provide interpretable results.