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dc.contributor.authorBilbao, Roberto
dc.contributor.authorOrtega Montilla, Pablo
dc.contributor.authorSwingedouw, Didier
dc.contributor.authorHermanson, Leon
dc.contributor.authorAthanasiadis, Panos
dc.contributor.authorDoblas-Reyes, Francisco
dc.contributor.authorHo, An-Chi
dc.contributor.authorSamsó, Margarida
dc.date.accessioned2024-05-15T14:11:16Z
dc.date.available2024-05-15T14:11:16Z
dc.date.issued2024
dc.identifier.citationBilbao, R. [et al.]. Impact of volcanic eruptions on CMIP6 decadal predictions: a multi-model analysis. "Earth System Dynamics", 2024, vol. 15, núm. 2, p. 501-525.
dc.identifier.issn2190-4979
dc.identifier.issn2190-4987
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2117/408063
dc.description.abstractIn recent decades, three major volcanic eruptions of different intensity have occurred (Mount Agung in 1963, El Chichón in 1982 and Mount Pinatubo in 1991), with reported climate impacts on seasonal to decadal timescales that could have been potentially predicted with accurate and timely estimates of the associated stratospheric aerosol loads. The Decadal Climate Prediction Project component C (DCPP-C) includes a protocol to investigate the impact of volcanic aerosols on the climate experienced during the years that followed those eruptions through the use of decadal predictions. The interest of conducting this exercise with climate predictions is that, thanks to the initialisation, they start from the observed climate conditions at the time of the eruptions, which helps to disentangle the climatic changes due to the initial conditions and internal variability from the volcanic forcing. The protocol consists of repeating the retrospective predictions that are initialised just before the last three major volcanic eruptions but without the inclusion of their volcanic forcing, which are then compared with the baseline predictions to disentangle the simulated volcanic effects upon climate. We present the results from six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) decadal prediction systems. These systems show strong agreement in predicting the well-known post-volcanic radiative effects following the three eruptions, which induce a long-lasting cooling in the ocean. Furthermore, the multi-model multi-eruption composite is consistent with previous work reporting an acceleration of the Northern Hemisphere polar vortex and the development of El Niño conditions the first year after the eruption, followed by a strengthening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation the subsequent years. Our analysis reveals that all these dynamical responses are both model- and eruption-dependent. A novel aspect of this study is that we also assess whether the volcanic forcing improves the realism of the predictions. Comparing the predicted surface temperature anomalies in the two sets of hindcasts (with and without volcanic forcing) with observations we show that, overall, including the volcanic forcing results in better predictions. The volcanic forcing is found to be particularly relevant for reproducing the observed sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the North Atlantic Ocean following the 1991 eruption of Pinatubo.
dc.description.sponsorshipThis research has been supported by the Departament de Recerca i Universitats de la Generalitat de Catalunya for the Climate Variability and Change (CVC) Research Group (reference: 2021 SGR 00786). Roberto Bilbao was supported by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research project CONFESS (grant no. 101004156). Pablo Ortega was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness through Ramon y Cajal (grant no. RYC-2017-22772). Stephen Yeager acknowledges the support of the Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) component of the Earth and Environmental System Modeling Program of the Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (award no. DE-SC0022070).
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherCopernicus Publications
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 International
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectÀrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia
dc.subject.lcshClimatology--Computer programs.
dc.subject.lcshClimate science
dc.subject.lcshVolcanic ash, tuff, etc.
dc.subject.otherCMIP6
dc.subject.otherDecadal predictions
dc.subject.otherVolcanic eruptions
dc.subject.otherDecadal Climate Prediction Project component C (DCPP-C)
dc.titleImpact of volcanic eruptions on CMIP6 decadal predictions: a multi-model analysis
dc.typeArticle
dc.subject.lemacSimulació per ordinador
dc.identifier.doi10.5194/esd-15-501-2024
dc.description.peerreviewedPeer Reviewed
dc.relation.publisherversionhttps://esd.copernicus.org/articles/15/501/2024/
dc.rights.accessOpen Access
dc.description.versionPostprint (published version)
dc.relation.projectidinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI// RYC-2017-22772
dc.relation.projectidinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/101004156/EU/Consistent representation of temporal variations of boundary forcings in reanalyses and seasonal forecasts/CONFESS
local.citation.publicationNameEarth System Dynamics
local.citation.volume15
local.citation.number2
local.citation.startingPage501
local.citation.endingPage525
dc.relation.datasetThe climate model data used in this study are openly available from the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) at the following URL: https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/ (last access: 18 April 2024).
dc.description.authorship"Article signat per 17 autors/es: Roberto Bilbao, Pablo Ortega, Didier Swingedouw, Leon Hermanson, Panos Athanasiadis, Rosie Eade, Marion Devilliers, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Nick Dunstone, An-Chi Ho, William Merryfield, Juliette Mignot, Dario Nicolì, Margarida Samsó, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Xian Wu, and Stephen Yeager"


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