Evaluating wildfire vulnerability of Mediterranean dwellings using fuzzy logic applied to expert judgement

Abstract

Background. Wildland–urban interface (WUI) fires pose great challenges to firefighting services and there is a growing need for self-protection and the creation of fire-adapted communities. Aim. A tool that can aid homeowners and residents of the Mediterranean WUI was created so that they can identify vulnerabilities present on their properties and consequently reduce them in order to reduce the risk of fires igniting dwellings. Methods. This Vulnerability Assessment Tool is based on a fault tree analysis that includes possible structural vulnerabilities as well as the different ways a fire could spread on a property to finally enter and ignite a dwelling. The probabilities of the different events are obtained from fuzzy preferences of WUI experts. Key results. Our system was tested against real-world data taken from two WUI fires that occurred in 2021 and 2022 in Spain in which several dwellings were affected, with different degrees of damage (minor to major losses). Conclusions. The tool is able to show the vulnerabilities of the properties and to account for differences in building characteristics and vegetation management at the parcel scale. Implications. A planned use of this tool would be key to improving fire resilience at the community level.