Modeling SARS-CoV-2 true infections in Catalonia through a digital twin

Abstract

A dynamic view of the evolution of the infections of SARS-CoV-2 in Cataloniausing a Digital Twin approach that forecasts the true infection curve ispresented. The forecast model incorporates the vaccination process, theconfinement, and the detection rate, and virtually allows to consider anynonpharmaceutical intervention, enabling to understand their effects on thedisease’s containment while forecasting the trend of the pandemic. Acontinuous validation process of the model is performed using real data andan optimization model that automatically provides information regarding theeffects of the containment actions on the population. To simplify thisvalidation process, a formal graphical language that simplifies the interactionwith the different specialists and an easy modification of the modelparameters are used. The Digital Twin of the pandemic in Catalonia provides aforecast of the future trend of the SARS-CoV-2 spread and informationregarding the true cases and effectiveness of the NPIs to control theSARS-CoV-2 spread over the population. This approach can be applied easilyto other regions and can become an excellent tool for decision-making.