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dc.contributor.authorSolaraju Murali, Balakrishnan
dc.contributor.authorBojovic, Dragana
dc.contributor.authorGonzalez-Reviriego, Nube
dc.contributor.authorNicodemou, Andria
dc.contributor.authorTerrado Casanovas, Marta
dc.contributor.authorCaron, Louis-Philippe
dc.contributor.authorDoblas Reyes, Francisco
dc.contributor.otherUniversitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Doctorat en Enginyeria Ambiental
dc.contributor.otherBarcelona Supercomputing Center
dc.date.accessioned2022-06-16T08:38:09Z
dc.date.available2022-06-16T08:38:09Z
dc.date.issued2022-08
dc.identifier.citationSolaraju-Murali, B. [et al.]. How decadal predictions entered the climate services arena: an example from the agriculture sector. "Climate services", Agost 2022, vol. 27, article 100303, p. 1-11.
dc.identifier.issn2405-8807
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2117/368560
dc.description.abstractPredicting the variations in climate for the coming 1–10 years is of great interest for decision makers, as this time horizon coincides with the strategic planning of stakeholders from climate-vulnerable sectors such as agriculture. This study attempts to illustrate the potential value of decadal predictions in the development of climate services by establishing interactions and collaboration with stakeholders concerned with food production and security. Building on our experience from interacting with users and the increased understanding of their needs gathered over the years through our participation in various European activities and initiatives, we developed a decadal forecast product that provides tailored and user-friendly information about multi-year dry conditions for the coming five years over global wheat harvesting regions. This study revealed that the coproduction approach, where the interaction between the user and climate service provider is established at an early stage of forecast product development, is a fundamental step to successfully provide useful and ultimately actionable information to the interested stakeholders. The study also provides insights that shed light on the reasons for the delayed entry of decadal predictions in the climate services discourse and practice, obtained from surveying climate scientists and discussing with decadal prediction experts. Finally, it shows the key challenges that this new source of climate information still faces.
dc.description.sponsorshipWe would like to acknowledge financial support from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation programme (MED-GOLD; Grant No. 776467, EUCP; Grant No. 776613 and FOCUS-Africa; Grant No. 869575). This study has also received support from C3S_34c (contract number: ECMWF/COPERNICUS/2019/ C3S_34c_DWD) of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) operated by ECMWF. We thank Angel G. Muñoz and an anonymous reviewer for their invaluable comments on the manuscript. BSM acknowledges additional financial support from the Marie Sklodowska-Curie fellowship (Grant No. 713673) and from a fellowship of ’la Caixa’ Foundation (ID 100010434). The fellowship code is LCF/BQ/IN17/11620038.
dc.format.extent11 p.
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherElsevier
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 International
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectÀrees temàtiques de la UPC::Desenvolupament humà i sostenible::Enginyeria ambiental
dc.subject.lcshClimatology -- Forecasting
dc.subject.lcshClimatology -- Mathematical models
dc.subject.lcshAgriculture
dc.subject.otherDecadal climate forecast
dc.subject.otherNear-term prediction
dc.subject.otherCoproduction
dc.subject.otherFood security
dc.titleHow decadal predictions entered the climate services arena: an example from the agriculture sector
dc.typeArticle
dc.subject.lemacClimatologia -- Models matemàtics
dc.subject.lemacClimatologia -- Previsió
dc.subject.lemacAgricultura
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.cliser.2022.100303
dc.description.peerreviewedPeer Reviewed
dc.relation.publisherversionhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880722000218
dc.rights.accessOpen Access
local.identifier.drac33782090
dc.description.versionPostprint (published version)
dc.relation.projectidinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/776467/EU/Turning climate-related information into added value for traditional MEDiterranean Grape, OLive and Durum wheat food systems/MED-GOLD
dc.relation.projectidinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/869575/EU/Full-value chain Optimised Climate User-centric Services for Southern Africa: FOCUS-Africa/FOCUS-Africa
dc.relation.projectidinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/776613/EU/European Climate Prediction system/EUCP
dc.relation.projectidinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/713673/EU/Innovative doctoral programme for talented early-stage researchers in Spanish host organisations excellent in the areas of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM)./INPhINIT
local.citation.authorSolaraju-Murali, B.; Bojovic, D.; Gonzalez-Reviriego, N.; Nicodemou, A.; Terrado, M.; Caron, L.; Doblas, F.
local.citation.publicationNameClimate services
local.citation.volume27
local.citation.numberarticle 100303
local.citation.startingPage1
local.citation.endingPage11


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