Assessment of harbour inoperability and adaptation cost due to sea level rise: application to the port of Tangier-Med (Morocco)

Abstract

This paper intends to assess the potential impacts of the future SLR on the operability of berthing structures and to estimate in monetary terms the adaptation costs to it. To do this, three scenarios of SLR are considered, two corresponding to the last assessment report of IPCC (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and the other being a high-end scenario (HES), with a low probability of occurrence but physically possible. The research is focused on the case study of Tangier-Med port, which is considered as an economic magnet for the northern region of Morocco and the centerpiece of the government strategy for port development. The results show that the operability of the port will be affected only under the HES and from 2090 onwards. However, by 2100, in this scenario all the docks would be affected, especially the service terminal and those dedicated to containers, hydrocarbons, vehicles and general cargo, in which the percentage of inoperability could exceed 30% of the time. This would lead to traffic losses of 1.9 million TEUS and more than 22 million tons of cargo by 2100 while the adaptation costs would exceed 40 million euros (in present monetary units).