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Impacts of future climate and land cover changes on landslide susceptibility: regional scale modelling in the Val d’Aran region (Pyrenees, Spain)

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10.1007/s10346-021-01775-6
 
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hdl:2117/364834

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Hurlimann Ziegler, MarcelMés informacióMés informacióMés informació
Guo, Zizheng
Puig i Polo, CàrolMés informacióMés informacióMés informació
Medina Iglesias, Vicente César deMés informacióMés informacióMés informació
Document typeArticle
Defense date2022-01
Rights accessRestricted access - publisher's policy (embargoed until 2022-10-27)
All rights reserved. This work is protected by the corresponding intellectual and industrial property rights. Without prejudice to any existing legal exemptions, reproduction, distribution, public communication or transformation of this work are prohibited without permission of the copyright holder
ProjectANALISIS DE LA EROSION DE SUELOS EN TERRENOS DE ALTA PENDIENTE A DIFERENTES ESCALAS. PROCESOS FISICOS, AUSCULTACION Y MODELIZACION DE FUTUROS CAMBIOS AMBIENTALES (AEI-PID2019-104266RB-I00)
Abstract
It is widely accepted that future environmental changes will affect rainfall-induced shallow slides in high-mountain areas. In this study, the Val d’Aran region located in the Central Pyrenees was selected to analyze and quantify the impacts of land use and land cover (LULC) and climate changes on regional landslides susceptibility. We analyzed 26 climate models of the EURO-CORDEX database focussing on the future rainfall conditions. The IDRISI TerrSet software suite was used to create the future LULC maps. These two inputs were analyzed individually and in a combined way defining 20 different scenarios. All these scenarios were incorporated in a physically based stability model to compute landslides susceptibility maps. The results showed that both environmental conditions will considerably change in the future. The daily rainfall will increase between 14 and 26% assuming a return period of 100 years. This intensification of precipitation will produce an overall decrease of the stability condition in the study area. Regarding the LULC prediction, the forest area will significantly increase, while in particular grassland, but also shrubs decrease. As a consequence, the overall stability condition improves, because the root strength is higher in forest than in grassland and shrubs. When we analyzed the combined impacts, the results showed that the positive effect of LULC changes is larger than the negative influence of rainfall changes. Hence, when combining the two aspects in the future scenarios, the stability condition in the study area will improve.
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The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10346-021-01775-6
CitationHurlimann, M. [et al.]. Impacts of future climate and land cover changes on landslide susceptibility: regional scale modelling in the Val d'Aran region (Pyrenees, Spain). "Landslides", 2022, vol. 19, núm. 1, p. 99-118. 
URIhttp://hdl.handle.net/2117/364834
DOI10.1007/s10346-021-01775-6
ISSN1612-510X
Publisher versionhttps://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10346-021-01775-6
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  • CREMIT - Centre de Recerca de Motors i Instal·lacions Tèrmiques - Articles de revista [33]
  • Departament d'Enginyeria Civil i Ambiental - Articles de revista [2.463]
  • Departament de Màquines i Motors Tèrmics - Articles de revista [419]
  • EnGeoModels - Monitoring and Modelling in Engineering Geology - Articles de revista [36]
  • EGEO - Enginyeria Geomàtica - Articles de revista [62]
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