Impacts of future climate and land cover changes on landslide susceptibility: regional scale modelling in the Val d’Aran region (Pyrenees, Spain)
Visualitza/Obre
Cita com:
hdl:2117/364834
Tipus de documentArticle
Data publicació2022-01
Condicions d'accésAccés obert
Tots els drets reservats. Aquesta obra està protegida pels drets de propietat intel·lectual i
industrial corresponents. Sense perjudici de les exempcions legals existents, queda prohibida la seva
reproducció, distribució, comunicació pública o transformació sense l'autorització del titular dels drets
Abstract
It is widely accepted that future environmental changes will affect rainfall-induced shallow slides in high-mountain areas. In this study, the Val d’Aran region located in the Central Pyrenees was selected to analyze and quantify the impacts of land use and land cover (LULC) and climate changes on regional landslides susceptibility. We analyzed 26 climate models of the EURO-CORDEX database focussing on the future rainfall conditions. The IDRISI TerrSet software suite was used to create the future LULC maps. These two inputs were analyzed individually and in a combined way defining 20 different scenarios. All these scenarios were incorporated in a physically based stability model to compute landslides susceptibility maps. The results showed that both environmental conditions will considerably change in the future. The daily rainfall will increase between 14 and 26% assuming a return period of 100 years. This intensification of precipitation will produce an overall decrease of the stability condition in the study area. Regarding the LULC prediction, the forest area will significantly increase, while in particular grassland, but also shrubs decrease. As a consequence, the overall stability condition improves, because the root strength is higher in forest than in grassland and shrubs. When we analyzed the combined impacts, the results showed that the positive effect of LULC changes is larger than the negative influence of rainfall changes. Hence, when combining the two aspects in the future scenarios, the stability condition in the study area will improve.
Descripció
The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10346-021-01775-6
CitacióHurlimann, M. [et al.]. Impacts of future climate and land cover changes on landslide susceptibility: regional scale modelling in the Val d'Aran region (Pyrenees, Spain). "Landslides", 2022, vol. 19, núm. 1, p. 99-118.
ISSN1612-510X
Versió de l'editorhttps://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10346-021-01775-6
Col·leccions
- CREMIT - Centre de Recerca de Motors i Instal·lacions Tèrmiques - Articles de revista [48]
- Departament d'Enginyeria Civil i Ambiental - Articles de revista [3.002]
- Departament de Màquines i Motors Tèrmics - Articles de revista [471]
- EnGeoModels - Monitoring and Modelling in Engineering Geology - Articles de revista [54]
- EGEO - Enginyeria Geomàtica - Articles de revista [62]
Fitxers | Descripció | Mida | Format | Visualitza |
---|---|---|---|---|
postprint UPC.pdf | 3,248Mb | Visualitza/Obre |