Modeling growth, containment and decay of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy
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hdl:2117/358674
Tipus de documentArticle
Data publicació2020-11-30
EditorFrontiers Media SA
Condicions d'accésAccés obert
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Abstract
A careful inspection of the cumulative curve of confirmed COVID-19 infections in Italy and in other hard-hit countries reveals three distinct phases: i) an initial exponential growth (unconstrained phase), ii) an algebraic, power-law growth (containment phase), and iii) a relatively slow decay. We propose a parsimonious compartment model based on a time-dependent rate of depletion of the susceptible population that captures all such phases for a plausible range of model parameters. The results suggest an intimate interplay between the growth behavior, the timing and implementation of containment strategies, and the subsequent saturation of the outbreak.
CitacióCapuano, F. Modeling growth, containment and decay of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy. "Frontiers in Physics", 30 Novembre 2020, vol. 8, p. 1-8.
ISSN2296-424X
Versió de l'editorhttps://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fphy.2020.586180/full
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