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dc.contributor.authorProdhomme, Chloé
dc.contributor.authorMateria, Stefano
dc.contributor.authorArdilouze, Constantin
dc.contributor.authorWhite, Rachel H.
dc.contributor.authorBatté, Lauriane
dc.contributor.authorGuemas, Virginie
dc.contributor.authorFragkoulidis, Georgios
dc.contributor.authorGarcía Serrano, Javier
dc.contributor.otherBarcelona Supercomputing Center
dc.identifier.citationProdhomme, C. [et al.]. Seasonal prediction of European summer heatwaves. "Climate Dynamics", 2021,
dc.description.abstractUnder the influence of global warming, heatwaves are becoming a major threat in many parts of the world, affecting human health and mortality, food security, forest fires, biodiversity, energy consumption, as well as the production and transportation networks. Seasonal forecasting is a promising tool to help mitigate these impacts on society. Previous studies have highlighted some predictive capacity of seasonal forecast systems for specific strong heatwaves such as those of 2003 and 2010. To our knowledge, this study is thus the first of its kind to systematically assess the prediction skill of heatwaves over Europe in a state-of-the-art seasonal forecast system. One major prerequisite to do so is to appropriately define heatwaves. Existing heatwave indices, built to measure heatwave duration and severity, are often designed for specific impacts and thus have limited robustness for an analysis of heatwave variability. In this study, we investigate the seasonal prediction skill of European summer heatwaves in the ECMWF System 5 operational forecast system by means of several dedicated metrics, as well as its added-value compared to a simple statistical model based on the linear trend. We are able to show, for the first time, that seasonal forecasts initialized in early May can provide potentially useful information of summer heatwave propensity, which is the tendency of a season to be predisposed to the occurrence of heatwaves.
dc.description.sponsorshipThis work is a contribution to the HyMeX program through the project ERA4CS-MEDSCOPE, co-funded by the Horizon 2020 Framework Program of the European Union (Grant agreement 690462). Chloe Prodhomme and Javier García-Serrano were supported by the Spanish Juan de la Cierva (IJCI-2016-30802) and Ramon y Cajal (RYC-2016-21181) programs, respectively. Rachel H. White received funding from the European Unions Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Grant Agreement 797961.
dc.format.extent18 p.
dc.rightsAttribution 3.0 Spain
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
dc.subjectÀrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia
dc.subjectÀrees temàtiques de la UPC::Desenvolupament humà i sostenible::Degradació ambiental::Canvi climàtic
dc.subject.lcshHeatwaves (Meteorology)
dc.subject.lcshWeather forecasting
dc.subject.otherSeasonal forecast
dc.titleSeasonal prediction of European summer heatwaves
dc.subject.lemacEscalfament global
dc.subject.lemacSimulacio per ordinador
dc.description.peerreviewedPeer Reviewed
dc.rights.accessOpen Access
dc.description.versionPostprint (published version)
dc.relation.projectidinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/690462/EU/European Research Area for Climate Services/ERA4CS
dc.relation.projectidinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/797961/EU/Propagation of atmospheric ROssby waves/PROTECT
local.citation.publicationNameClimate Dynamics

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Attribution 3.0 Spain
Except where otherwise noted, content on this work is licensed under a Creative Commons license : Attribution 3.0 Spain