Ir al contenido (pulsa Retorno)

Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya

    • Català
    • Castellano
    • English
    • LoginRegisterLog in (no UPC users)
  • mailContact Us
  • world English 
    • Català
    • Castellano
    • English
  • userLogin   
      LoginRegisterLog in (no UPC users)

UPCommons. Global access to UPC knowledge

58.848 UPC E-Prints
You are here:
View Item 
  •   DSpace Home
  • E-prints
  • Centres de recerca
  • BSC - Barcelona Supercomputing Center
  • Earth Sciences
  • Articles de revista
  • View Item
  •   DSpace Home
  • E-prints
  • Centres de recerca
  • BSC - Barcelona Supercomputing Center
  • Earth Sciences
  • Articles de revista
  • View Item
JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.

Seasonal prediction of European summer heatwaves

Thumbnail
View/Open
Prodhomme2021_Article_SeasonalPredictionOfEuropeanSu.pdf (6,635Mb)
Share:
 
 
10.1007/s00382-021-05828-3
 
  View Usage Statistics
Cita com:
hdl:2117/350618

Show full item record
Prodhomme, Chloé
Materia, Stefano
Ardilouze, Constantin
White, Rachel H.
Batté, Lauriane
Guemas, Virginie
Fragkoulidis, Georgios
García Serrano, JavierMés informació
Document typeArticle
Defense date2021
PublisherSpringer
Rights accessOpen Access
Attribution 3.0 Spain
Except where otherwise noted, content on this work is licensed under a Creative Commons license : Attribution 3.0 Spain
ProjectERA4CS - European Research Area for Climate Services (EC-H2020-690462)
PROTECT - Propagation of atmospheric ROssby waves (EC-H2020-797961)
Abstract
Under the influence of global warming, heatwaves are becoming a major threat in many parts of the world, affecting human health and mortality, food security, forest fires, biodiversity, energy consumption, as well as the production and transportation networks. Seasonal forecasting is a promising tool to help mitigate these impacts on society. Previous studies have highlighted some predictive capacity of seasonal forecast systems for specific strong heatwaves such as those of 2003 and 2010. To our knowledge, this study is thus the first of its kind to systematically assess the prediction skill of heatwaves over Europe in a state-of-the-art seasonal forecast system. One major prerequisite to do so is to appropriately define heatwaves. Existing heatwave indices, built to measure heatwave duration and severity, are often designed for specific impacts and thus have limited robustness for an analysis of heatwave variability. In this study, we investigate the seasonal prediction skill of European summer heatwaves in the ECMWF System 5 operational forecast system by means of several dedicated metrics, as well as its added-value compared to a simple statistical model based on the linear trend. We are able to show, for the first time, that seasonal forecasts initialized in early May can provide potentially useful information of summer heatwave propensity, which is the tendency of a season to be predisposed to the occurrence of heatwaves.
Related documenthttps://static-content.springer.com/esm/art%3A10.1007%2Fs00382-021-05828-3/MediaObjects/382_2021_5828_MOESM1_ESM.pdf
CitationProdhomme, C. [et al.]. Seasonal prediction of European summer heatwaves. "Climate Dynamics", 2021, 
URIhttp://hdl.handle.net/2117/350618
DOI10.1007/s00382-021-05828-3
Publisher versionhttps://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-021-05828-3
Collections
  • Earth Sciences - Articles de revista [323]
Share:
 
  View Usage Statistics

Show full item record

FilesDescriptionSizeFormatView
Prodhomme2021_A ... PredictionOfEuropeanSu.pdf6,635MbPDFView/Open

Browse

This CollectionBy Issue DateAuthorsOther contributionsTitlesSubjectsThis repositoryCommunities & CollectionsBy Issue DateAuthorsOther contributionsTitlesSubjects

© UPC Obrir en finestra nova . Servei de Biblioteques, Publicacions i Arxius

info.biblioteques@upc.edu

  • About This Repository
  • Contact Us
  • Send Feedback
  • Inici de la pàgina