Overview of near-term decadal climate prediction and its applications: Technical note

Abstract

This document provides a synthesis of the current knowledge on decadal prediction. The document is divided in three parts. The first section provides an overview of the external forcings and the slow climate oscillations that provide predictability at the decadal timescale. The second section describes the different steps of a typical decadal prediction experiment: initialization, simulation, post-processing and forecast quality assessment. That section also provides a short summary on to the level of skill currently available from decadal prediction systems. Finally, the third section provides an overview of different applications that have attempted to make use of decadal predictions, in particular in agriculture-relevant sectors. The document concludes by offering a perspective on the development of decadal prediction in the upcoming years.