Tsunami inundation forecast in central Chile using stochastic earthquake scenarios

Abstract

As demonstrated by recent mega-tsunamis, tsunami coastal inundation could vary substantially as a result of the source characteristics and the local geomorphologic-related- effects. Here, numerical simulations are used to characterize the tsunami potential triggered by seismic sources. Particularly, available data suggesting high stressed areas along the shallow part of the interplate in central Chile are used to assess potential tsunami inundation along the highly populated coastal area of Vi ˜na del Mar and Valpara´ıso in Chile. The approach lies on the assessment of 1000 inundation scenarios along the region for earthquakes with Mw 8.6 - Mw 8.7. It is found that flow depths of 10 m can affect the region. This is crucial information for urban planning.