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dc.contributor.authorBenassi, Marianna
dc.contributor.authorConti, Giovanni
dc.contributor.authorGualdi, Silvio
dc.contributor.authorRuggieri, Paolo
dc.contributor.authorMateria, Stefano
dc.contributor.authorGarcía Serrano, Javier
dc.contributor.authorPalmeiro, Froila M.
dc.contributor.authorBatté, Lauriane
dc.contributor.authorArdilouze, Constantin
dc.contributor.otherBarcelona Supercomputing Center
dc.identifier.citationBenassi, M. [et al.]. El Niño teleconnection to the Euro-Mediterranean late-winter: the role of extratropical Pacific modulation. "Climate Dynamics", 2021,
dc.description.abstractEl Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) represents the major driver of interannual climate variability at global scale. Observational and model-based studies have fostered a long-standing debate on the shape and intensity of the ENSO influence over the Euro-Mediterranean sector. Indeed, the detection of this signal is strongly affected by the large internal variability that characterizes the atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic–European (NAE) region. This study explores if and how the low-frequency variability of North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) may impact the El Niño-NAE teleconnection in late winter, which consists of a dipolar pattern between middle and high latitudes. A set of idealized atmosphere-only experiments, prescribing different phases of the anomalous SST linked to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) superimposed onto an El Niño-like forcing in the tropical Pacific, has been performed in a multi-model framework, in order to assess the potential modulation of the positive ENSO signal. The modelling results suggest, in agreement with observational estimates, that the PDO negative phase (PDO−) may enhance the amplitude of the El Niño-NAE teleconnection, while the dynamics involved appear to be unaltered. On the other hand, the modulating role of the PDO positive phase (PDO+) is not reliable across models. This finding is consistent with the atmospheric response to the PDO itself, which is robust and statistically significant only for PDO−. Its modulation seems to rely on the enhanced meridional SST gradient and the related turbulent heat-flux released along the Kuroshio–Oyashio extension. PDO− weakens the North Pacific jet, whereby favoring more poleward propagation of wave activity, strengthening the El Niño-forced Rossby wave-train. These results imply that there might be conditional predictability for the interannual Euro-Mediterranean climate variability depending on the background state.
dc.description.sponsorshipThis work has been performed in the framework of the MEDSCOPE (MEDiterranean Services Chain based on climate PrEdictions) ERA4CS project (grant agreement no. 690462) funded by the European Union. J.G.-S. was supported by the “Ramón y Cajal” programme (RYC-2016-21181). F.M.P. was partially supported by the Spanish DANAE (CGL2015-68342-R) and GRAVITOCAST (ERC2018-092835) projects. We greatly thank the two anonymous reviewers for the insightful and constructive comments and suggestions.
dc.format.extent21 p.
dc.rightsAttribution 3.0 Spain
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
dc.subjectÀrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida
dc.subject.lcshEl Niño Curren
dc.subject.lcshClimatic changes
dc.subject.lcshAtmospheric circulation
dc.subject.lcshAtmospheric circulation--Mathematical models
dc.subject.lcshTeleconnections (Climatology)
dc.subject.otherEl Niño teleconnection
dc.subject.otherPacific Decadal Oscillation
dc.subject.otherNorth Atlantic–European climate
dc.subject.otherSeasonal predictability
dc.titleEl Niño teleconnection to the Euro-Mediterranean late-winter: the role of extratropical Pacific modulation
dc.subject.lemacSimulacio per ordinador
dc.rights.accessOpen Access
dc.description.versionPostprint (published version)
dc.relation.projectidinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/690462/EU/European Research Area for Climate Services/ERA4CS
local.citation.publicationNameClimate Dynamics

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Attribution 3.0 Spain
Except where otherwise noted, content on this work is licensed under a Creative Commons license : Attribution 3.0 Spain