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dc.contributor.authorExarchou, Eleftheria
dc.contributor.authorOrtega Montilla, Pablo
dc.contributor.authorRodríguez Fonseca, Belén
dc.contributor.authorLosada, Teresa
dc.contributor.authorPolo, Irene
dc.contributor.authorProdhomme, Chloé
dc.contributor.otherBarcelona Supercomputing Center
dc.identifier.citationExarchou, E. [et al.]. Impact of equatorial Atlantic variability on ENSO predictive skill. "Nature Communications", 2021, vol. 12, 1612.
dc.description.abstractEl Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a key mode of climate variability with worldwide climate impacts. Recent studies have highlighted the impact of other tropical oceans on its variability. In particular, observations have demonstrated that summer Atlantic Niños (Niñas) favor the development of Pacific Niñas (Niños) the following winter, but it is unclear how well climate models capture this teleconnection and its role in defining the seasonal predictive skill of ENSO. Here we use an ensemble of seasonal forecast systems to demonstrate that a better representation of equatorial Atlantic variability in summer and its lagged teleconnection mechanism with the Pacific relates to enhanced predictive capacity of autumn/winter ENSO. An additional sensitivity study further shows that correcting SST variability in equatorial Atlantic improves different aspects of forecast skill in the Tropical Pacific, boosting ENSO skill. This study thus emphasizes that new efforts to improve the representation of equatorial Atlantic variability, a region with long standing systematic model biases, can foster predictive skill in the region, the Tropical Pacific and beyond, through the global impacts of ENSO.
dc.description.sponsorshipE.E.’s work was supported by the FP7-PREFACE project (grant agreement number: 603521) and the H2020 project TRIATLAS (grant agreement number: 817578). C.P. was supported by a Spanish Juan de la Cierva (JCI-2016-30802) fellowship and P.O. by a Ramon y Cajal (RyC-2017-22772) fellowship. B.R.d.F., T.L., and I.P. are supported by the European Union Seventh Framework Program (FP7/2007-2013) under Grant Agreement 603521 (PREFACE-EU project) and the Spanish Project CGL2017-86415-R. We are grateful to Francisco J. Doblas Reyes for his valuable feedback.
dc.format.extent8 p.
dc.publisherSpringer Nature
dc.rightsAttribution 3.0 Spain
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
dc.subjectÀrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia
dc.subject.lcshComputer simulation
dc.subject.lcshEl Niño Current
dc.subject.lcshAtmospheric circulation
dc.subject.lcshLa Niña Current
dc.subject.lcshClimate sciences
dc.subject.otherAtlantic variability
dc.subject.otherENSO predictive skill
dc.subject.otherSeasonal forecast systems
dc.titleImpact of equatorial Atlantic variability on ENSO predictive skill
dc.subject.lemacSimulació per ordinador
dc.description.peerreviewedPeer Reviewed
dc.rights.accessOpen Access
dc.description.versionPostprint (published version)
dc.relation.projectidinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/817578/EU/Tropical and South Atlantic climate-based marine ecosystem predictions for sustainable management/TRIATLAS
local.citation.publicationNameNature Communications

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Attribution 3.0 Spain
Except where otherwise noted, content on this work is licensed under a Creative Commons license : Attribution 3.0 Spain