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Impact of equatorial Atlantic variability on ENSO predictive skill

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10.1038/s41467-021-21857-2
 
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hdl:2117/343489

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Exarchou, EleftheriaMés informació
Ortega Montilla, PabloMés informació
Rodríguez Fonseca, Belén
Losada, Teresa
Polo, Irene
Prodhomme, Chloé
Document typeArticle
Defense date2021
PublisherSpringer Nature
Rights accessOpen Access
Attribution 3.0 Spain
This work is protected by the corresponding intellectual and industrial property rights. Except where otherwise noted, its contents are licensed under a Creative Commons license : Attribution 3.0 Spain
ProjectTRIATLAS - Tropical and South Atlantic climate-based marine ecosystem predictions for sustainable management (EC-H2020-817578)
Abstract
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a key mode of climate variability with worldwide climate impacts. Recent studies have highlighted the impact of other tropical oceans on its variability. In particular, observations have demonstrated that summer Atlantic Niños (Niñas) favor the development of Pacific Niñas (Niños) the following winter, but it is unclear how well climate models capture this teleconnection and its role in defining the seasonal predictive skill of ENSO. Here we use an ensemble of seasonal forecast systems to demonstrate that a better representation of equatorial Atlantic variability in summer and its lagged teleconnection mechanism with the Pacific relates to enhanced predictive capacity of autumn/winter ENSO. An additional sensitivity study further shows that correcting SST variability in equatorial Atlantic improves different aspects of forecast skill in the Tropical Pacific, boosting ENSO skill. This study thus emphasizes that new efforts to improve the representation of equatorial Atlantic variability, a region with long standing systematic model biases, can foster predictive skill in the region, the Tropical Pacific and beyond, through the global impacts of ENSO.
CitationExarchou, E. [et al.]. Impact of equatorial Atlantic variability on ENSO predictive skill. "Nature Communications", 2021, vol. 12, 1612. 
URIhttp://hdl.handle.net/2117/343489
DOI10.1038/s41467-021-21857-2
ISSN2041-1723
Publisher versionhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-21857-2#auth-Bel_n-Rodr_guez_Fonseca
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