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dc.contributor.authorClaveria González, Oscar
dc.contributor.authorMonte Moreno, Enrique
dc.contributor.authorTorra Porras, Salvador
dc.contributor.otherUniversitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Departament de Teoria del Senyal i Comunicacions
dc.identifier.citationClaveria, O.; Monte, E.; Torra, S. Frequency domain analysis and filtering of business and consumer survey expectations. "International economics", Agost 2021, vol. 166, p. 42-57.
dc.description.abstractThe main objective of this study is two-fold. First, we aim to detect the underlying existing periodicities in business and consumer survey expectations by means of spectral analysis. We use the Welch method to extract the harmonic components that correspond to the cyclic and seasonal patterns in all response options of monthly survey indicators. We find that business survey indicators show a common cyclical component of low frequency that corresponds to about four years, while for most consumer survey indicators we do not detect any relevant cyclic components, and the obtained lower frequency periodicities show a very irregular pattern across questions and reply options. Second, we aim to provide researchers with a filter especially designed for business and consumer survey expectations that circumvents the assumptions of other filtering methods. Most methods for seasonal adjustment are based on a priori assumptions about the structure of the components and do not depend on the features of the specific series. In order to overcome this limitation, we design a low-pass filter that allows extracting the components with periodicities similar to those that can be found in the dynamics of economic activity. We opt for a Butterworth filter and apply a zero-phase filtering process to preserve the time alignment of the time series. We find that the balances computed with the filtered series are highly correlated with the seasonally-adjusted balances published by the European Commission, albeit the former tend to be smoother for the consumer survey indicators.
dc.format.extent25 p.
dc.rightsAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
dc.rights©2021 Elsevier
dc.subjectÀrees temàtiques de la UPC::Economia i organització d'empreses
dc.subjectÀrees temàtiques de la UPC::Matemàtiques i estadística::Anàlisi numèrica::Mètodes espectrals
dc.subject.lcshEconomic forecasting
dc.subject.lcshConsumers -- Surveys
dc.subject.otherBusiness and consumer survey
dc.subject.otherSpectral analysis
dc.subject.otherSignal processing
dc.subject.otherLow-pass filter
dc.titleFrequency domain analysis and filtering of business and consumer survey expectations
dc.subject.lemacPrevisió econòmica
dc.subject.lemacConsumidors -- Enquestes
dc.contributor.groupUniversitat Politècnica de Catalunya. VEU - Grup de Tractament de la Parla
dc.description.peerreviewedPeer Reviewed
dc.rights.accessRestricted access - publisher's policy
dc.description.versionPostprint (author's final draft)
local.citation.authorClaveria, O.; Monte, E.; Torra, S.
local.citation.publicationNameInternational economics

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