Effect of climate change on slope stability: a numerical analysis using predictions of the Catalan Pyrenees
Visualitza/Obre
Tipus de documentText en actes de congrés
Data publicació2021
EditorInternational Society for Soil Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering (ISSMGE)
Condicions d'accésAccés obert
Tots els drets reservats. Aquesta obra està protegida pels drets de propietat intel·lectual i
industrial corresponents. Sense perjudici de les exempcions legals existents, queda prohibida la seva
reproducció, distribució, comunicació pública o transformació sense l'autorització del titular dels drets
Abstract
The effect of climate change on soil loss processes in mountainous areas represents a current and critical problem. In this work, this issue is addressed through the analysis of the stability of different types of slopes subjected to climatic actions by 1D thermo-hydraulic numerical modeling and the infinite slope approach. The study aims to establish an average value of the safety factor, its variance and the probability of failure for the conditioning factors. The atmospheric values incorporated in the stability calculations are from regional climate change predictive models. The correlation data considers the most appropriate climate change projection for our study area located in the Central Pyrenees (Spain). Current reports, when considering the Mediterranean area, predict a rise in temperature up to 4.8 ° C for the largest projections of greenhouse gas emissions, which influence thermal flux and heat transfer patterns and mass storage processes, hydraulic conductivity values, changes in saturation degrees and liquid pressures. While the rainfall in the winter season decreases, the intensity and duration remain through all stability analysis as one of the parameters with the greatest influence of all climatic factors, by directly intervening in the increase in pore fluid pressures. The application of an infinite slope model for the analysis of the safety factor allows a stability analysis when evaluating the responses of the numerical model Code Bright. Code Bright incorporates the problem of flow and balance of water, air and energy, and the reaction to atmospheric scenarios for different soil types and the thermal and hydraulic properties that influence the development of the slope failure. The evolution of the safety factors related to the atmospheric variables describes the components of the instability and the sensitivity of the constitutive parameters of the soil. Other factors such as heterogeneous resistances within the coupled model allow us to describe a more characteristic state of natural slopes. The results show that the greatest impacts arise in years under climatic indices of high temperatures or above the averages of their categories. Precipitation values remain in average ranges, but the year precedent rainfall having a statistically higher mean value. On average these episodes of failure are estimated for rainfall between 40 and 60 mm, with higher probability for extreme rainfall of 90 mm. The period 2041-2070 illustrates an increase in instability events and a decrease in return periods for the three types of soils considered in the numerical modeling.
CitacióRodríguez, S. [et al.]. Effect of climate change on slope stability: a numerical analysis using predictions of the Catalan Pyrenees. A: International Symposium on Landslides. "International Society for Soil Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering Online Library: 13th International Symposium on Landslides ( XIII ISL)". International Society for Soil Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering (ISSMGE), 2021, p. 1-8.
Versió de l'editorhttps://www.issmge.org/uploads/publications/105/106/ISL2020-75.pdf
Col·leccions
- Departament d'Enginyeria Civil i Ambiental - Ponències/Comunicacions de congressos [1.269]
- EnGeoModels - Monitoring and Modelling in Engineering Geology - Ponències/Comunicacions de congressos [44]
- MSR - Mecànica del Sòls i de les Roques - Ponències/Comunicacions de congressos [373]
- EGEO - Enginyeria Geomàtica - Ponències/Comunicacions de congressos [105]
Fitxers | Descripció | Mida | Format | Visualitza |
---|---|---|---|---|
30685159.pdf | 398,7Kb | Visualitza/Obre |