Development and Analysis of Pathways for a Sustainable Housing Cooling Sector in Ljungby, Sweden, using Modular Participatory Backcasting

Abstract

This master thesis aims to design a pathway for the cooling sector in Ljungby, a town in south of Sweden, which would meet local stakeholders’ needs and fulfil sustainability criteria. At the same time, the thesis makes an attempt to quantify future need for household cooling in Sweden, and test adaptability of Modular participatory backcasting to local conditions. Context was analysed by mapping local stakeholders on an interest-power plane, and evaluating functions of the system, sustainability criteria, and growth drivers. Structure of the cooling system in 2035 and 2050 has been built around a stakeholder’s vision of an adapted and efficient cooling system supplemented by cooling demand reduction, while its scale was assessed by using the United States as a proxy. A pathway and a short-term action plan for this desirable future vision have been created. The thesis demonstrates the need to engage in strategic planning of the cooling sector early on, even in cold countries such as Sweden. At the same time, an argument can be made that resorting to qualitative approach – adopted due to limited data sources on household cooling in Europe and limited participation from local stakeholders due to pandemic restrictions – did not reduce the quality of analysis and presents a viable way of assessing the future vision of the system.