Estimación holística del riesgo sísmico: nuevos enfoques

Abstract

The fuzzy set theory offers a bridge between the symbolic and numerical processing, allowing managing qualitative concepts useful in the decision-making process related to the seismic risk management and, in general, to the disaster risk management. Its use in the seismic risk evaluation is necessary in the cases where the data required to apply a conventional method of assessing risk are not available or are insufficient. One possible solution, considered in this article, is to replace the missing information by expert opinions and to process the resulting qualitative variables and linguistic qualifications instead of numerical values. This process is based on the fuzzy set theory. In order to achieve an effective management, the risk must be defined as the potential physical, economic, social and environmental consequences which occur due to hazards in a given period of time. From this holistic perspective and using the fuzzy set theory, the proposed numerical method calculates a level of the physical risk and level of the aggravating conditions related to social fragility and to the lack of resilience, to determine a total risk level. The proposed method is applied to the city of Barcelona, Spain, and the obtained results are compared with those corresponding to a conventional method of holistic evaluation.