Simulación probabilista del riesgo sísmico en Lorca

Abstract

An analysis of the earthquake losses for Lorca, Spain has been performed in this article. The seismic hazard is represented by a set of stochastic scenarios that allow considering the effect of all the possible events upon the future losses in the city. The dynamic response of the soil has been also considered using spectral transfer functions. Another important starting point for estimating damages and losses has been the database of the buildings of Lorca which includes essential information regarding the structures such as age, building materials, number of floors and typology. To each structural type, vulnerability functions have been associated in order to obtain the expected losses for different levels of the ground acceleration. An approach based on the replacement cost allows calculating direct losses in monetary terms. The most important result was the loss exceedance curve from which the expected annual loss and the probable maximum loss are derived. Both the threat and vulnerability were modeled in a probabilistic way, considering their inherent uncertainties and also their propagation in the damages and losses calculation process.