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Projections of temperature and precipitation extremes in the North Western Mediterranean Basin by dynamical downscaling of climate scenarios at high resolution (1971-2050)
dc.contributor.author | Barrera Escoda, Antoni |
dc.contributor.author | Gonçalves Ageitos, María |
dc.contributor.author | Guerreiro, Dolores |
dc.contributor.author | Cunillera i Grañó, Jordi |
dc.contributor.author | Baldasano Recio, José María |
dc.contributor.other | Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Departament de Projectes d'Enginyeria |
dc.date.accessioned | 2015-03-18T12:52:25Z |
dc.date.created | 2014-02-01 |
dc.date.issued | 2014-02-01 |
dc.identifier.citation | Barrera, A. [et al.]. Projections of temperature and precipitation extremes in the North Western Mediterranean Basin by dynamical downscaling of climate scenarios at high resolution (1971-2050). "Climatic change", 01 Febrer 2014, vol. 122, núm. 4, p. 567-582. |
dc.identifier.issn | 0165-0009 |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/2117/26803 |
dc.description.abstract | The North Western Mediterranean basin (NWMB) is characterised by a highly complex topography and an important variability of temperature and precipitation patterns. Downscaling techniques are required to capture these features, identify the most vulnerable areas to extreme changes and help decision makers to design strategies of mitigation and adaptation to climate change. A Regional Climate Model, WRF-ARW, is used to downscale the IPCC-AR4 ECHAM5/MPI-OM General Circulation Model results with high resolution (10 km), considering three different emissions scenarios (B1, A1B and A2) for 2001-2050. Model skills to reproduce observed extremes are assessed for a control period, 1971-2000, using the ERA40 reanalysis to drive the WRF-ARW simulations. A representative set of indices for temperature and precipitation extremes is projected. The modelling system correctly reproduces amplitude and frequency of extremes and provides a high degree of detail on variability over neighbouring areas. However, it tends to overestimate the persistence of wet events and consequently slightly underestimate the length of dry periods. Drier and hotter conditions are generally projected for the NWMB, with significant increases in the duration of droughts and the occurrence of heavy precipitation events. The projected increase in the number of tropical nights and extreme temperatures could have a negative effect on human health and comfort conditions. Simulations allow defining specifically vulnerable areas, such as the Ebro Valley or the Pyrenees, and foreseeing impacts on socio-economic activities in the region |
dc.format.extent | 16 p. |
dc.language.iso | eng |
dc.subject | Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Desenvolupament humà i sostenible::Degradació ambiental::Canvi climàtic |
dc.subject | Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Desenvolupament humà i sostenible::Medi ambient |
dc.subject.lcsh | Climate change |
dc.subject.other | Model projections |
dc.subject.other | Iberia peninsula |
dc.subject.other | European climate |
dc.subject.other | Spain |
dc.title | Projections of temperature and precipitation extremes in the North Western Mediterranean Basin by dynamical downscaling of climate scenarios at high resolution (1971-2050) |
dc.type | Article |
dc.subject.lemac | Canvis climàtics |
dc.contributor.group | Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. MTA - Modelització i Tecnologia Ambiental |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1007/s10584-013-1027-6 |
dc.description.peerreviewed | Peer Reviewed |
dc.rights.access | Restricted access - publisher's policy |
local.identifier.drac | 13999183 |
dc.description.version | Postprint (published version) |
dc.date.lift | 10000-01-01 |
local.citation.author | Barrera, A.; Gonçalves, M.; Guerreiro, D.; Cunillera I grañó, Jordi; Baldasano, J. |
local.citation.publicationName | Climatic change |
local.citation.volume | 122 |
local.citation.number | 4 |
local.citation.startingPage | 567 |
local.citation.endingPage | 582 |
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