Fuzzy models: Easier to understand and an easier way to handle uncertainties in climate change research
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Greenhouse gas emission scenarios (through 2100) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change when converted to concentrations and atmospheric temperatures through the use of climate models result in a wide range of concentrations and temperatures with a rather simple interpretation: the higher the emissions the higher the concentrations and temperatures. Therefore the uncertainty in the projected temperature due to the uncertainty in the emissions is large. Linguistic rules are obtained through the use of linear emission scenarios and the Magicc model. These rules describe the relations between the concentrations (input) and the temperature increase for the year 2100 (output) and are used to build a fuzzy model. Another model is presented that includes, as a second source of uncertainty in input, the climate sensitivity to explore its effects on the temperature. Models are attractive because their simplicity and capability to integrate the uncertainties to the input and the output.
CitationGay, C. [et al.]. Fuzzy models: Easier to understand and an easier way to handle uncertainties in climate change research. A: "Simulation and modeling methodologies, technologies and applications: international conference, SIMULTECH 2012: Rome, Italy, July 28-31, 2012: revised selected papers". 2014, p. 223-237.
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