Development of a predictive framework for geothermal and geotechnical responses in cold regions experiencing climate change
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Cold regions, which are expected to suffer particularly severe future climate effects, will pose very challenging geotechnical conditions in the 21st century involving ground freezing and thawing. Given the uncertainty of future environmental changes and the vast expanses of the cold regions, it is appropriate to address problems such as pipeline or road construction with analytical methods that have multiple scales and layers. High- and middle-level predictive tools are described that integrate climatic predictions from AOGCMs and their down-scaling schemes, geological and topographical (DEM) information, remotely-sensed vegetation data and non-linear finite element analysis for soil freezing and thawing. These tools output broad scale predictions of geothermal responses, at a regional scale, that offer hazard zoning schemes related to permafrost thawing. A more intensive localscale predictive tool is then outlined that considers fully-coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical processes occurring at the soil-element level and outputs detailed predictions for temperature changes, pore water behaviour, ground stresses and deformation in and around geotechnical structures. Applications of these tools to specific problems set in Eastern Siberia and pipeline heave tests are illustrated.
CitationNishimura, S. [et al.]. Development of a predictive framework for geothermal and geotechnical responses in cold regions experiencing climate change. A: International Conference on Soil Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering. "Proceedings of the 18th International Conference on Soil Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering". Paris: 2013, p. 3391-3394.
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