Análisis de beneficio costo de la mitigación del riesgo sísmico de las escuelas de la Región Andina y de Centro América

Abstract

The observed damages in schools during earthquakes have encouraged the development of projects oriented to reduce its vulnerability. Those projects have been supported by damage assessments and Benefit Cost Analysis for specific scenarios. In this sense, this study presents a rough estimate of the seismic risk of the schools in the Andean Region and Central America following a probabilistic approach. This study encompasses: i) the definition of probabilistic seismic hazard models at the country level, using spectral ordinates as intensity measurements, ii) the estimation of the schools’ built area, its economic value and geographical distribution, as well as its classification in structural typologies; iii) the selection of representative vulnerability curves for each structural typology; iv) the estimation of the Loss Exceedance Curve (LEC) and the Annual Average Loss (AAL) of the schools’ built area in the current conditions as well as in the case of a hypothetical structural rehabilitation. The comparison of those results with the reinforcement costs leads to Benefit Cost ratios from a financial perspective. Thus, this study is useful for regional comparisons and national screening purposes, as a first step in guiding the national seismic risk reduction programs of the educational sector.