Probabilistic assessment of seismic risk of Barcelona, Spain, using the CAPRA platform

Abstract

The Comprehensive Approach for Probabilistic Risk Assessment (CAPRA), is a robust methodology for modeling risk which allows identifying the most important aspects of catastrophes. CAPRA performs the evaluation of losses of the exposed elements using probabilistic metrics, such as the loss exceedance curve, the expected annual loss and the probable maximum loss, which are useful for multi-hazard risk analysis. The outcomes obtained with such a technical-scientific methodology are oriented to facilitate decision-making. They allow designing risk transfer instruments, evaluating the cost–benefit ratio, developing risk mitigation strategies and loss scenarios for emergency response, etc. The CAPRA platform is described in this paper by using as a testbed the city of Barcelona, Spain. Nevertheless, the results included for this urban area have not only a high scientific interest but also a practical one, because they are useful in taking risk reduction decision by the Municipality.