Show simple item record

dc.contributor.authorPuig Oriol, Xavier
dc.contributor.authorGinebra Molins, Josep
dc.contributor.otherUniversitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Departament d'Estadística i Investigació Operativa
dc.date.accessioned2013-11-29T08:44:33Z
dc.date.created2014
dc.date.issued2014
dc.identifier.citationPuig, X.; Ginebra, J. A Cluster analysis of vote transitions. "Computational statistics and data analysis", 2014, vol. 70, p. 328-344.
dc.identifier.issn0167-9473
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2117/20843
dc.descriptionBayesian model checking; Bayesian hierarchical model; Ecological inference; Election data; Spatial data
dc.description.abstractTo help settle the debate triggered the day after any election around the origin and destination of the vote of winners and losers, a Bayesian analysis of the results in a pair of consecutive elections is proposed. It is based on a model that simultaneously carries out a cluster analysis of the areas in which the results are broken into and links the results in the two elections of areas in a given cluster through a vote switch matrix. The number of clusters is chosen both through predictive checks as well as by testing whether the residuals are spatially correlated or not. The analysis is tried on the results in Barcelona of a pair of consecutive elections held just four months apart, in 2003 for the Catalan parliament and in 2004 for the Spanish parliament. The proposed approach, which reconstructs individual behavior from aggregated data, can be exported to be a solution for any ecological inference problem where one cannot assume that all the areas are exchangeable the way typically assumed by other ecological inference methods.
dc.format.extent17 p.
dc.language.isoeng
dc.rightsAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Spain
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/
dc.subjectÀrees temàtiques de la UPC::Matemàtiques i estadística
dc.subject.lcshBayesian statistical decision theory
dc.subject.otherBayesian model checking
dc.subject.otherBayesian hierarchical model
dc.subject.otherEcological inference
dc.subject.otherElection data
dc.subject.otherSpatial data
dc.titleA Cluster analysis of vote transitions
dc.typeArticle
dc.subject.lemacEstadística bayesiana
dc.subject.lemacInvestigació operativa
dc.contributor.groupUniversitat Politècnica de Catalunya. GRESA - Grup de recerca en estadística aplicada
dc.description.peerreviewedPeer Reviewed
dc.relation.publisherversionhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.csda.2013.10.006
dc.rights.accessRestricted access - publisher's policy
local.identifier.drac12910023
dc.description.versionPostprint (published version)
dc.date.lift10000-01-01
local.citation.authorPuig, X.; Ginebra, J.
local.citation.publicationNameComputational statistics and data analysis
local.citation.volume70
local.citation.startingPage328
local.citation.endingPage344


Files in this item

Thumbnail

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record