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dc.contributor.authorClaveria González, Oscar
dc.contributor.authorMonte Moreno, Enrique
dc.contributor.authorTorra Porras, Salvador
dc.contributor.otherUniversitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Departament de Teoria del Senyal i Comunicacions
dc.date.accessioned2020-07-09T11:37:39Z
dc.date.available2020-07-09T11:37:39Z
dc.date.issued2017-07-05
dc.identifier.citationClaveria, O.; Monte, E.; Torra Porras, S. "Let the data do the talking: empirical modelling of survey-based expectations by means of genetic programming". 2017.
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2117/192731
dc.descriptionWorking paper
dc.description.abstractIn this study we use agents’ expectations about the state of the economy to generate indicators of economic activity in twenty-six European countries grouped in five regions (Western, Eastern, and Southern Europe, and Baltic and Scandinavian countries). We apply a data-driven procedure based on evolutionary computation to transform survey variables in economic growth rates. In a first step, we design five independent experiments to derive the optimal combination of expectations that best replicates the evolution of economic growth in each region by means of genetic programming, limiting the integration schemes to the main mathematical operations. We then rank survey variables according to their performance in tracking economic activity, finding that agents’ “perception about the overall economy compared to last year” is the survey variable with the highest predictive power. In a second step, we assess the out-of-sample forecast accuracy of the evolved indicators. Although we obtain different results across regions, Austria, Slovakia, Portugal, Lithuania and Sweden are the economies of each region that show the best forecast results. We also find evidence that the forecasting performance of the survey-based indicators improves during periods of higher growth.
dc.format.extent22 p.
dc.language.isoeng
dc.rightsAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Spain
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/
dc.subjectÀrees temàtiques de la UPC::Informàtica
dc.subjectÀrees temàtiques de la UPC::Matemàtiques i estadística::Estadística matemàtica
dc.subject.lcshGenetic programming (Computer science)
dc.subject.lcshEconomics -- Statistical methods
dc.subject.otherEconomic performance
dc.subject.otherAgents’ expectations
dc.subject.otherGenetic programming
dc.titleLet the data do the talking: empirical modelling of survey-based expectations by means of genetic programming
dc.typeExternal research report
dc.subject.lemacProgramació genètica (Informàtica)
dc.subject.lemacEconomia -- Mètodes estadístics
dc.contributor.groupUniversitat Politècnica de Catalunya. VEU - Grup de Tractament de la Parla
dc.relation.publisherversionhttp://www.ub.edu/irea/working_papers/2017/201711.pdf
dc.rights.accessOpen Access
local.identifier.drac28852205
dc.description.versionPreprint
dc.relation.projectidinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MINECO/1PE/ECO2016-75805-R
dc.relation.projectidinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MINECO/1PE/TEC2015-69266-P
local.citation.authorClaveria, O.; Monte, E.; Torra Porras, Salvador


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Except where otherwise noted, content on this work is licensed under a Creative Commons license : Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Spain