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Multi-year prediction of European summer drought conditions for the agricultural sector
dc.contributor.author | Solaraju Murali, Balakrishnan |
dc.contributor.author | Caron, Louis-Philippe |
dc.contributor.author | Gonzalez-Reviriego, Nube |
dc.contributor.author | Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J |
dc.contributor.other | Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Doctorat en Enginyeria Ambiental |
dc.contributor.other | Barcelona Supercomputing Center |
dc.date.accessioned | 2020-07-02T14:06:14Z |
dc.date.available | 2020-07-02T14:06:14Z |
dc.date.issued | 2019-11-27 |
dc.identifier.citation | Solaraju-Murali, B. [et al.]. Multi-year prediction of European summer drought conditions for the agricultural sector. "Environmental research letters", 27 Novembre 2019, vol. 14, núm. 12, p. 124014-1-124014-12. |
dc.identifier.issn | 1748-9326 |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/2117/192329 |
dc.description.abstract | Decadal climate prediction, where climate models are initialized with the contemporaneous state of the Earth system and run for a decade into the future, represents a new source of near-term climate information to better inform decisions and policies across key climate-sensitive sectors. This paper illustrates the potential usefulness of such predictions for building a climate service for agricultural needs. In particular, we assess the forecast quality of multi-model climate predictions in estimating two user-relevant drought indices, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), at multi-annual timescales during European summer. We obtain high skill for predicting five-year average (forecast years 1–5) SPEI across Southern Europe, while for the same forecast period SPI exhibits high and significant skill over Scandinavia and its surrounding regions. In addition, an assessment of the added value of initialized decadal climate information with respect to standard uninitialized climate projections is presented. The model initialization improves the forecast skill over Central Europe, the Balkan region and Southern Scandinavia. Most of the increased skill found with initialization seems to be due to the climate forecast systems ability to improve the extended summer precipitation and potential evapotranspiration forecast, as well as their ability to adequately represent the observed effects of these climate variables on the drought indices. |
dc.description.sponsorship | We would like to acknowledge financial support from the European Unionʼs Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation programme (EUCP; Grant No. 776613 and MED-GOLD; Grant No. 776467) and from the Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (MINECO) as part of the CLINSA (Grant No. CGL2017-85791-R) and HIATUS (Grant No. CGL2015-70353-R) projects. BSM acknowledges additional financial support from the Marie Sklodowska-Curie fellowship (Grant No. 713673) and from a fellowship of ‘la Caixa’ Foundation (ID 100010434). The fellowship code is LCF/BQ/ IN17/11620038. |
dc.language.iso | eng |
dc.rights | Attribution 3.0 Spain |
dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/ |
dc.subject | Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Desenvolupament humà i sostenible::Enginyeria ambiental |
dc.subject.lcsh | Agriculture |
dc.subject.lcsh | Water-supply |
dc.subject.lcsh | Weather forecasting |
dc.subject.other | Decadal forecast |
dc.subject.other | Drought |
dc.subject.other | Forecast quality assessment |
dc.title | Multi-year prediction of European summer drought conditions for the agricultural sector |
dc.type | Article |
dc.subject.lemac | Agricultura |
dc.subject.lemac | Aigua -- Abastament |
dc.subject.lemac | Previsió del temps |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1088/1748-9326/ab5043 |
dc.description.peerreviewed | Peer Reviewed |
dc.relation.publisherversion | https://iopscience.iop.org/journal/1748-9326 |
dc.rights.access | Open Access |
local.identifier.drac | 26759268 |
dc.description.version | Postprint (published version) |
dc.relation.projectid | info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/776613/EU/European Climate Prediction system/EUCP |
dc.relation.projectid | info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/776467/EU/Turning climate-related information into added value for traditional MEDiterranean Grape, OLive and Durum wheat food systems/MED-GOLD |
dc.relation.projectid | info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/713673/EU/Innovative doctoral programme for talented early-stage researchers in Spanish host organisations excellent in the areas of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM)./INPhINIT |
dc.relation.projectid | info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2013-2016/CGL2017-85791-R/ES/PREDICCION DECADAL CLIMATICA PARA SERVICIOS CLIMATICOS A CORTO PLAZO Y ADAPTACION/ |
local.citation.author | Solaraju-Murali, B.; Caron, L.; González-Reviriego, N.; Doblas-Reyes, F.J. |
local.citation.publicationName | Environmental research letters |
local.citation.volume | 14 |
local.citation.number | 12 |
local.citation.startingPage | 124014-1 |
local.citation.endingPage | 124014-12 |
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