The present report aims to provide a comprehensive picture of the pandemic situation of COVID-19 in the
EU countries, and to be able to foresee the situation in the next coming days.
We employ an empirical model, verified with the evolution of the number of confirmed cases in previous
countries where the epidemic is close to conclude, including all provinces of China. The model does not
pretend to interpret the causes of the evolution of the cases but to permit the evaluation of the quality of
control measures made in each state and a short-term prediction of tendencies. Note, however, that the
effects of the measures’ control that start on a given day are not observed until approximately 5-7 days later.
The model and predictions are based on two parameters that are daily fitted to available data:
a: the velocity at which spreading specific rate slows down; the higher the value, the better the
control.
K: the final number of expected cumulated cases, which cannot be evaluated at the initial stages
because growth is still exponential.
Next, we show a report with 8 graphs and a table with the short-term predictions for (1) European Union and
its countries, (2) other countries, (3) Spain and its autonomous communities.
We are currently adjusting the model to countries and regions with at least 4 days with more than 100
confirmed cases and a current load over 200 cases. The predicted period of a country depends on the number
of datapoints over this 100 cases threshold:
Group A: countries that have reported more than 100 cumulated cases for 10 consecutive days or
more ¿ 3-5 days prediction;
Group B: countries that have reported more than 100 cumulated cases for 7 to 9 consecutive days
¿ 2 days prediction;
Group C: countries that have reported more than 100 cumulated cases for 4 to 6 days ¿ 1 d ay
prediction.
We have introduced a change in fittings, that are now weighted at some points. The whole methodology
employed in the inform is explained in the last pages of this document.
