A critical discussion on the usefulness and reliability of mathematical modeling for service life design of infrastructure
Estadístiques de LA Referencia / Recolecta
Inclou dades d'ús des de 2022
Cita com:
hdl:2117/182640
Tipus de documentText en actes de congrés
Data publicació2013
EditorCIMNE
Condicions d'accésAccés obert
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Abstract
In view of the increasing age of existing structures asset managers are becoming more and more interested to have a clearer picture on the actual condition of the complete stock of existing infrastructure as to anticipate on possible maintenance regarding planning and allocation of the financial resources. Consequently, a clear need is emerging for prediction of the condition level over time using mathematical models. Regarding the design of new structures, the current codes are based on traditional options and thus give ample possibilities for alternative options. For instance, at present the significantly different performance of binders is not taken into account. Therefore it is not surprising that in recent years a clear trend can be observed towards the application of mathematical modelling using a probabilistic approach for durability, e.g. the fib Model Code on Service Life Design. In order to allow for prediction of the condition of a structural component over time or to demonstrate equal performance of design solutions, widely accepted mathematical models that describe degradation processes are required. Ideally, such models should be mathematically and physically sound, provide logical and realistic results, understandable and usable for practitioners, and thus to be to a considerable extent foolproof. However, most models include significant pitfalls and limitations which are either not mentioned or not known even to the developer. In addition, in most cases the quantification of the input parameters is not addressed which will undoubtedly result in ‘shopping’. In this respect the use of input values based on expert opinion should be treated with serious caution. In addition it has to be noted that most models have been calibrated on results obtained for laboratory experiments that have been performed under ideal conditions not reflecting situations encountered in practice. Experience has also shown that probabilistic approaches are frequently misused as to support a wrong decision or an execution error (shallow cover depths).
ISBN978-84-941531-5-0
Fitxers | Descripció | Mida | Format | Visualitza |
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COMPLAS2013-50_ ... sion on the usefulness.pdf | 614,5Kb | Visualitza/Obre |