Lane-changing and freeway capacity: a Bayesian inference stochastic model

Abstract

This article presents a new stochastic computational model for determining freeway capacity reduction as a result of lane-changing activity. The probability density function for the maximum flow that can be sustained on a freeway for a given lane-changing level is obtained. The results can be used to support freeway management strategies aiming to mitigate the negative consequences of lane-changing in freeway capacity. A pilot test using empirical data obtained from the B-23 freeway accessing the city of Barcelona proves the validity of the modeling approach.