A novel electricity price forecasting approach based on dimension reduction strategy and rough artificial neural networks

Abstract

An accurate electricity price forecasting (EPF) plays a vital role in the deregulated energy markets and has a specific effect on optimal management of the power system. Considering all the potent factors in determining the electricity prices—some of which have stochastic nature—makes this a cumbersome task. In this article, first, Grey correlation analysis is applied to select the effective parameters in EPF problem and eliminate redundant factors based on low correlation grades. Then, a deep neural network with stacked denoising auto-encoders has been utilized to denoise data sets from different sources individually. After that, to detect the main features of the input data and putting aside the unnecessary features, dimension reduction process is implemented. Finally, the rough structure artificial neural network (ANN) has been executed to forecast the day-ahead electricity price. The proposed method is implemented on the data of Ontario, Canada, and the forecasted results are compared with different structures of ANN, support vector machine, long shortterm memory—benchmarking methods in this field—and forecasting data reported by independent electricity system operator (IESO) to evaluate the efficiency of the proposed approach. Furthermore, the results of this article indicate that the proposed method is efficient in terms of reducing error criterion and improves the forecasting error about 5–10 percent in comparison with IESO. This is a remarkable achievement in EPF field.