Disaster risk reduction: a decision-making support tool based on the morphological analysis

Abstract

Risk management due to natural hazards is a multidimensional and complex problem since it requires the knowledge and experience of several disciplines. The effectiveness of risk management can be analyzed, inviting to the action through weakness identification of the urban area. This article proposes a methodology based on the morphological analysis to support the decision-making on disaster risk management, taking as a starting point the results of a holistic evaluation of the seismic risk. The results of the holistic evaluation of risk are achieved aggravating the physical risk using the contextual conditions, such as the socio-economic fragility and the lack of resilience. In consequence, the risk mitigation can be performed through the reduction of the potential damage and consequences involved; and the improvement of social conditions. The proposed methodology allows prioritizing the risk reduction strategies according to i) performance level of component indicators involved into the Disaster Risk Management index, DRMi; ii) physical risk factors dependent from the potential damages, and iii) aggravating factors involved in the aggravating coefficient. Moreover, it involves 35 strategies to reduce the physical risk and the aggravating social conditions of the urban area. The proposed methodology has been applied to the city of Mérida (Venezuela), located within an area of high seismic activity. The performance level of the indicators involved in the DRMi was evaluated by a survey to local experts. As a result, eleven strategies have been identified to reduce the potential damage and to improve the social conditions of this city.