Palm oil supply chain risk analysis

Abstract

This research project is a supply chain risk evaluation of palm oil as a commodity in the next years. The project assesses how supply and demand will evolve in the coming years in order to find out if the centralized production of palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia will be able to cope with the increasing demand of the vegetable oil. The study consists of a statistical forecast of the consumption and production as well as an evaluation of risk factors that can affect the production and change the amount predicted. The paper concludes that production and demand will converge in 2027 and that the risk factors will play a definite role in the short and mid-term. The risk factors can lead to a crisis of production and, consequently, a shortage scenario.