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An assessment of regional sea ice predictability in the Arctic ocean

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10.1007/s00382-018-4592-6
 
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hdl:2117/166401

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Cruz-García, Rubén
Guemas, Virginie
Chevallier, Matthieu
Massonnet, François
Document typeArticle
Defense date2019-07
PublisherSpringer
Rights accessOpen Access
All rights reserved. This work is protected by the corresponding intellectual and industrial property rights. Without prejudice to any existing legal exemptions, reproduction, distribution, public communication or transformation of this work are prohibited without permission of the copyright holder
ProjectAPPLICATE - Advanced Prediction in Polar regions and beyond: Modelling, observing system design and LInkages associated with ArctiC ClimATE change (EC-H2020-727862)
INTAROS - Integrated Arctic observation system (EC-H2020-727890)
Abstract
Arctic sea ice plays a central role in the Earth’s climate. Changes in the sea ice on seasonal-to-interannual timescales impact ecosystems, populations and a growing number of stakeholders. A prerequisite for achieving better sea ice predictions is a better understanding of the underlying mechanisms of sea ice predictability. Previous studies have shown that sea ice predictability depends on the predictand (area, extent, volume), region, and the initial and target dates. Here we investigate seasonal-to-interannual sea ice predictability in so-called “perfect-model” 3-year-long experiments run with six global climate models initialized in early July. Consistent with previous studies, robust mechanisms for reemergence are highlighted, i.e. increases in the autocorrelation of sea ice properties after an initial loss. Similar winter sea ice extent reemergence is found for HadGEM1.2, GFDL-CM3 and E6F, while a long sea ice volume persistence is confirmed for all models. The comparable predictability characteristics shown by some of the peripheral regions of the Atlantic side illustrate that robust similarities can be found even if models have distinct sea ice states. The analysis of the regional sea ice predictability in EC-Earth2.3 demonstrates that Arctic basins can be classified according to three distinct regimes. The central Arctic drives most of the pan-Arctic sea ice volume persistence. In peripheral seas, we find predictability for the sea ice area in winter but low predictability throughout the rest of the year, due to the particularly unpredictable sea ice edge location. The Labrador Sea stands out among the considered regions, with sea ice predictability extending up to 1.5 years if the oceanic conditions upstream are known.
CitationCruz-García, R. [et al.]. An assessment of regional sea ice predictability in the Arctic ocean. "Climate Dynamics", Juliol 2019, vol. 53, núm. 1-2, p. 427-440. 
URIhttp://hdl.handle.net/2117/166401
DOI10.1007/s00382-018-4592-6
ISSN0930-7575
Publisher versionhttps://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-018-4592-6
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  • Earth Sciences - Articles de revista [323]
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