Linking source with consequences of coastal storm impacts for climate change and risk reduction scenarios for Mediterranean sandy beaches

Abstract

Integrated risk assessment approaches to support coastal managers' decisions when designing plans are increasingly becoming an urgent need. To enable efficient coastal management, possible present and future scenarios must be included, disaster risk reduction measures integrated, and multiple hazards dealt with. In this work, the Bayesian network-based approach to coastal risk assessment was applied and tested at two Mediterranean sandy coasts (Tordera Delta in Spain and Lido degli Estensi–Spina in Italy). Process-oriented models are used to predict hazards at the receptor scale which are converted into impacts through vulnerability relations. In each site, results from 96 simulations under different scenarios are integrated by using a Bayesian-based decision network to link forcing characteristics with expected impacts through conditional probabilities. Consultations with local stakeholders and experts have shown that the tool is valuable for communicating risks and the effects of risk reduction strategies. The tool can therefore be valuable support for coastal decision-making.