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Multi-model skill assessment of seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts over Europe

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10.1007/s00382-018-4404-z
 
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hdl:2117/122724

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Mishra, Niti
Prodhomme, Chloé
Guemas, Virginie
Document typeArticle
Defense date2018-08-31
PublisherSpringer Verlag
Rights accessOpen Access
All rights reserved. This work is protected by the corresponding intellectual and industrial property rights. Without prejudice to any existing legal exemptions, reproduction, distribution, public communication or transformation of this work are prohibited without permission of the copyright holder
ProjectIMPREX - IMproving PRedictions and management of hydrological EXtremes (EC-H2020-641811)
Abstract
There is now a wide range of forecasts and observations of seasonal climatic conditions that can be used across a range of application sectors, including hydrological risk forecasting, planning and management. As we rely more on seasonal climate forecasts, it becomes essential to also assess its quality to ensure its intended use. In this study, we provide the most comprehensive assessment of seasonal temperature and precipitation ensemble forecasts of the EUROSIP multi-model forecasting system over Europe. The forecasts from the four individual climate models within the EUROSIP are assessed using both deterministic and probabilistic approaches. One equally and two unequally Weighted Multi-Models (WMMs) are also constructed from the individual models, for both climate variables, and their respective forecasts are also assessed. Consistent with existing literature, we find limited seasonal climate prediction skill over Europe. A simple equally WMM system performs better than both unequally WMM combination systems. However, the equally WMM system does not always outperform the single best model within the EUROSIP multi-model. Based on the results, it is recommended to assess seasonal temperature and precipitation forecast of individual climate models as well as their multi-model mean for a comprehensive overview of the forecast skill.
CitationMishra, N.; Prodhomme, C.; Guemas, V. Multi-model skill assessment of seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts over Europe. "Climate Dynamics", 31 Agost 2018. 
URIhttp://hdl.handle.net/2117/122724
DOI10.1007/s00382-018-4404-z
ISSN0930-7575
Publisher versionhttps://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-018-4404-z
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  • Earth Sciences - Articles de revista [323]
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