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dc.contributor.authorClaveria González, Oscar
dc.contributor.authorMonte Moreno, Enrique
dc.contributor.authorTorra Porras, Salvador
dc.contributor.otherUniversitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Departament de Teoria del Senyal i Comunicacions
dc.date.accessioned2018-09-13T16:09:55Z
dc.date.issued2018-01-01
dc.identifier.citationClaveria, O., Monte, E., Torra Porras, S. Economic uncertainty: a geometric indicator of discrepancy among experts’ expectations. "Social indicators research", 1 Gener 2018, vol. 143, núm. 1, p. 95-114.
dc.identifier.issn0303-8300
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2117/121115
dc.descriptionThe final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11205-018-1984-2
dc.description.abstractIn this study we present a geometric approach to proxy economic uncertainty. We design a positional indicator of disagreement among survey-based agents’ expectations about the state of the economy. Previous dispersion-based uncertainty indicators derived from business and consumer surveys exclusively make use of the two extreme pieces of information: the percentage of respondents expecting a variable to rise and to fall. With the aim of also incorporating the information coming from the share of respondents expecting a variable to remain constant, we propose a geometrical framework and use a barycentric coordinate system to generate a measure of disagreement, referred to as a discrepancy indicator. We assess its performance both empirically and experimentally by comparing it to the standard deviation of the share of positive and negative responses. When applied in sixteen European countries, we find that both time-varying metrics co-evolve in most countries for expectations about the country’s overall economic situation in the present, but not in the future. Additionally, we obtain their simulated sampling distributions and we find that the proposed indicator gravitates uniformly towards the three vertices of the simplex representing the three answering categories, as opposed to the standard deviation, which tends to overestimate the level of uncertainty as a result of ignoring the no-change responses. Consequently, we find evidence that the information coming from agents expecting a variable to remain constant has an effect on the measurement of disagreement.
dc.format.extent20 p.
dc.language.isoeng
dc.subjectÀrees temàtiques de la UPC::Economia i organització d'empreses::Aspectes socials
dc.subjectÀrees temàtiques de la UPC::Matemàtiques i estadística::Geometria
dc.subject.lcshEconomics -- Sociological aspects
dc.subject.lcshGeometry
dc.subject.otherExpectations
dc.subject.otherDisagreement
dc.subject.otherEconomic tendency surveys
dc.subject.otherGeometry
dc.subject.otherBarycentric coordinate system
dc.subject.otherSpatial vectors
dc.titleEconomic uncertainty: a geometric indicator of discrepancy among experts’ expectations
dc.typeArticle
dc.subject.lemacEconomia -- Aspectes sociològics
dc.subject.lemacGeometria
dc.contributor.groupUniversitat Politècnica de Catalunya. VEU - Grup de Tractament de la Parla
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s11205-018-1984-2
dc.description.peerreviewedPeer Reviewed
dc.relation.publisherversionhttps://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11205-018-1984-2
dc.rights.accessRestricted access - confidentiality agreement
drac.iddocument23330951
dc.description.versionPostprint (author's final draft)
dc.relation.projectidinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MINECO/1PE/TEC2015-69266-P
dc.date.lift2019-08-18
upcommons.citation.authorClaveria, O., Monte, E., Torra Porras, Salvador
upcommons.citation.publishedtrue
upcommons.citation.publicationNameSocial indicators research
upcommons.citation.startingPage95
upcommons.citation.endingPage114


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