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dc.contributor.authorCaron, Louis-Philippe
dc.contributor.authorHermanson, Leon
dc.contributor.authorDobbin, Alison
dc.contributor.authorImbers, Jara
dc.contributor.authorLledó, Llorenç
dc.contributor.authorVecchi, Gabriel A.
dc.contributor.otherBarcelona Supercomputing Center
dc.identifier.citationCaron, L. [et al.]. How Skillful are the Multiannual Forecasts of Atlantic Hurricane Activity?. "Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society", Març 2018, vol. 99, p. 403-413.
dc.description.abstractThe recent emergence of near-term climate prediction, wherein climate models are initialized with the contemporaneous state of the Earth system and integrated up to 10 years into the future, has prompted the development of three different multiannual forecasting techniques of North Atlantic hurricane frequency. Descriptions of these three different approaches, as well as their respective skill, are available in the peer-reviewed literature, but because these various studies are sufficiently different in their details (e.g., period covered, metric used to compute the skill, measure of hurricane activity), it is nearly impossible to compare them. Using the latest decadal reforecasts currently available, we present a direct comparison of these three multiannual forecasting techniques with a combination of simple statistical models, with the hope of offering a perspective on the current state-of-the-art research in this field and the skill level currently reached by these forecasts. Using both deterministic and probabilistic approaches, we show that these forecast systems have a significant level of skill and can improve on simple alternatives, such as climatological and persistence forecasts.
dc.description.sponsorshipThe first author would like to thank Isadora Jimenez for providing the necessary material for Fig. 2. The first author would like to acknowledge the financial support from the Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad (MINECO; Project CGL2014- 55764-R), the Risk Prediction Initiative at BIOS (Grant RPI2.0-2013-CARON), and the EU [Seventh Framework Programme (FP7); Grant Agreement GA603521]. We additionally acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. LPC's contract is cofinanced by the MINECO under the Juan de la Cierva Incorporacion postdoctoral fellowship number IJCI-2015-23367. Finally, we thank the National Hurricane Center for making the HURDAT2 data available. All climate model data are available at
dc.format.extent12 p.
dc.publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
dc.rightsAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 Spain
dc.subjectÀrees temàtiques de la UPC::Energies
dc.subject.lcshClimate science
dc.subject.lcshSeasonal climate forecasting
dc.subject.lcshHurricanes--Atlantic Ocean
dc.subject.otherSeasonal forecast
dc.subject.otherAtlantic hurricane
dc.subject.otherClimate prediction
dc.titleHow Skillful are the Multiannual Forecasts of Atlantic Hurricane Activity?
dc.subject.lemacPrevisió del temps
dc.description.peerreviewedPeer Reviewed
dc.rights.accessOpen Access
dc.description.versionPostprint (published version)
dc.relation.projectideu-repo/grantAgreement/MINECO/PE2013-2016/CGL2014- 55764-R
dc.relation.projectidinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/603521/EU/Enhancing prediction of tropical Atlantic climate and its impacts/PREFACE
local.citation.publicationNameBulletin of the American Meteorological Society

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Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 Spain
Salvo que se indique lo contrario, los contenidos de esta obra estan sujetos a la licencia de Creative Commons : Reconocimiento-NoComercial-SinObraDerivada 4.0 España