A prospective fuzzy approach for the development of integral seismic risk scenarios for Barcelona, Spain

Abstract

We create a set of synthetic seismic risk scenarios by combining stochastic seismic simulations with social fragility indicators by mean of a fuzzy Mamdani type inference nested-model. The original values of the social economic variables were modified by arbitrary increments to simulate either constrains or improvement in their reported levels, and the Fuzzy Seismic Risk Model was applied again for each of these variations to produce a range of final integral seismic risk levels. Even if this experiment clearly needs to be further tuned, the use of fuzzy inference in the creation of risk scenarios becomes a simpler task once suitable membership functions have been defined, since the non-linear influence of each of the variables involved can be easily quantified. The final product is capable to facilitate the prospective view needed in decision-making planning while avoiding compensability issues, commonly reflected when composite indicators are used to represent social dimensions.