Uncertainty in near-surface wind speed trends at seasonal time scales

Abstract

Observational studies have identified wind speed trends in the last decades [1,2] attributed to several factors such as changes in the land use, aerosol emissions or atmospheric circulation. However, in spite of the potential impact of this long-term variability in wind energy activities, this type of variability has not been fully characterized yet. As a consequence such information is not currently incorporated in wind power decision-making processes related to planning and management. long-term wind speed variability. For some of these users it is still difficult to identify the most suitable dataset for their specific needs, because a comparison of the quality of the wind speed data from different reanalyses at global scale is not readily available. For this reason, the present study investigates the wind speed long-term trends at global scale in the last decades (1981-2015) using three state-of-the-art reanalyses: ERA-Interim (ERA-I), the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) and Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2).