A probabilistic methodology to estimate the seismic risk of buildings in urban zones: application to Barcelona

Abstract

A probabilistic method called LM1_P, which is based on the LM1 method of the RISK-UE project is used to estimate the seismic risk of buildings in Barcelona. The LM1_P method allows taking into account numerous uncertainties that are present in any seismic risk estimation. In this method the quantity and quality of the data are considered to estimate seismic vulnerability, seismic hazard and seismic risk. One of the main differences of the LM1_P method with respect to similar methods is the way in that the seismic vulnerability is considered. The seismic hazard that is estimated for Barcelona is mainly expressed in terms of exceedance rate of the intensity. Curves that represent the seismic vulnerability of 54,375 buildings are estimated. The seismic risk estimated for each building is represented through seismic risk curves. According to the results, the studied buildings will suffer moderate damage in average one time every 2860 years.