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Multivariate statistical modelling of future marine storms

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20094829.pdf (3,221Mb)
 
10.1016/j.apor.2017.04.009
 
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Lin Ye, JueMés informació
García León, ManuelMés informació
Gracia Garcia, VicenteMés informacióMés informacióMés informació
Ortego Martínez, María IsabelMés informacióMés informacióMés informació
Lionello, Piero
Sánchez-Arcilla Conejo, AgustínMés informacióMés informacióMés informació
Document typeArticle
Defense date2017-04
Rights accessOpen Access
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Spain
Except where otherwise noted, content on this work is licensed under a Creative Commons license : Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Spain
ProjectCEASELESS - Copernicus Evolution and Aplications with Sentinel Enhancements and Land Effluents for Shores and Seas (EC-H2020-730030)
Abstract
Extreme events, such as wave-storms, need to be characterized for coastal infrastructure design purposes. Such description should contain information on both the univariate behaviour and the joint-dependence of storm-variables. These two aspects have been here addressed through generalized Pareto distributions and hierarchical Archimedean copulas. A non-stationary model has been used to highlight the relationship between these extreme events and non-stationary climate. It has been applied to a Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 Climate-Change scenario, for a fetch-limited environment (Catalan Coast). In the non-stationary model, all considered variables decrease in time, except for storm-duration at the northern part of the Catalan Coast. The joint distribution of storm variables presents cyclical fluctuations, with a stronger influence of climate dynamics than of climate itself.
CitationLin Ye, J., Garcia, M., Gracia, V., Ortego, M.I., Piero Lionello, Sanchez-Arcilla, A. Multivariate statistical modelling of future marine storms. "Applied ocean research", Abril 2017, vol. 65, p. 192-205. 
URIhttp://hdl.handle.net/2117/103920
DOI10.1016/j.apor.2017.04.009
ISSN0141-1187
Publisher versionhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0141118717300743
Other identifiershttps://arxiv.org/abs/1903.05727
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  • COSDA-UPC - COmpositional and Spatial Data Analysis - Articles de revista [88]
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