Multivariate statistical modelling of future marine storms
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Extreme events, such as wave-storms, need to be characterized for coastal infrastructure design purposes. Such description should contain information on both the univariate behaviour and the joint-dependence of storm-variables. These two aspects have been here addressed through generalized Pareto distributions and hierarchical Archimedean copulas. A non-stationary model has been used to highlight the relationship between these extreme events and non-stationary climate. It has been applied to a Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 Climate-Change scenario, for a fetch-limited environment (Catalan Coast). In the non-stationary model, all considered variables decrease in time, except for storm-duration at the northern part of the Catalan Coast. The joint distribution of storm variables presents cyclical fluctuations, with a stronger influence of climate dynamics than of climate itself.
CitationLin Ye, J., Garcia, M., Gracia, V., Ortego, M.I., Piero Lionello, Sanchez-Arcilla, A. Multivariate statistical modelling of future marine storms. "Applied ocean research", Abril 2017, vol. 65, p. 192-205.