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dc.contributor.authorTurco, Marco
dc.contributor.authorHardenberg, Jost von
dc.contributor.authorAghaKouchak, Amir
dc.contributor.authorLlasat, Maria C.
dc.contributor.authorProvenzale, Antonello
dc.contributor.authorTrigo, Ricardo M.
dc.contributor.otherBarcelona Supercomputing Center
dc.identifier.citationTurco, M. [et al.]. On the key role of droughts in the dynamics of summer fires in Mediterranean Europe. "Scientific Reports", 6 Març 2017, vol. 7, p. 81:1-81:10.
dc.description.abstractSummer fires frequently rage across Mediterranean Europe, often intensified by high temperatures and droughts. According to the state-of-the-art regional fire risk projections, in forthcoming decades climate effects are expected to become stronger and possibly overcome fire prevention efforts. However, significant uncertainties exist and the direct effect of climate change in regulating fuel moisture (e.g. warmer conditions increasing fuel dryness) could be counterbalanced by the indirect effects on fuel structure (e.g. warmer conditions limiting fuel amount), affecting the transition between climate-driven and fuel-limited fire regimes as temperatures increase. Here we analyse and model the impact of coincident drought and antecedent wet conditions (proxy for the climatic factor influencing total fuel and fine fuel structure) on the summer Burned Area (BA) across all eco-regions in Mediterranean Europe. This approach allows BA to be linked to the key drivers of fire in the region. We show a statistically significant relationship between fire and same-summer droughts in most regions, while antecedent climate conditions play a relatively minor role, except in few specific eco-regions. The presented models for individual eco-regions provide insights on the impacts of climate variability on BA, and appear to be promising for developing a seasonal forecast system supporting fire management strategies.
dc.description.sponsorshipWe thank the European Forest Fire Information System-EFFIS ( of the European Commission Joint Research Centre for the fire data. We acknowledge the SPEI data providers (http://sac.csic. es/spei/database.html). Special thanks to Joaquín Bedia, Esteve Canyameras, Xavier Castro and Andrej Ceglar for helpful discussions on the study. This work was partially funded by the Project of Interest “NextData” of the Italian Ministry for Education, University and Research and by the EU H2020 Project 641762 “ECOPOTENTIAL: Improving Future Ecosystem Benefits through Earth Observations”. Ricardo Trigo was supported by IMDROFLOOD funded by Portuguese FCT (WaterJPI/0004/2014).
dc.format.extent10 p.
dc.publisherNature Publishing Group
dc.rightsAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 Spain
dc.subjectÀrees temàtiques de la UPC::Desenvolupament humà i sostenible::Medi ambient
dc.subject.lcshForecasting--Computer simulation
dc.subject.lcshFire management
dc.subject.otherSummer fires
dc.subject.otherClimate variability
dc.subject.otherSeasonal forecasting
dc.titleOn the key role of droughts in the dynamics of summer fires in Mediterranean Europe
dc.subject.lemacPrevisió del temps
dc.subject.lemacEcologia dels focs
dc.description.peerreviewedPeer Reviewed
dc.rights.accessOpen Access
dc.description.versionPostprint (published version)
local.citation.publicationNameScientific Reports

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